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ZhangBin:Theeconomywillcontinuetorecoverinthesecondquarterbuttheeconomyisstilldifficulttoreturntonormalwithintheyear Thismorning(April17),thefirstquartereconomicdatareleasedbytheNationalBureauofStatisticsshowedthatGDPfellby6inthefirstquarter.8%.HowtoviewtheperformanceofChina’seconomyinthefirstquarter?WilltheChineseeconomyrecoverinthesecondquarter?SaunaNightNetworkinterviewedZhangBin,directoroftheGlobalMacroeconomicResearchOfficeoftheWorldEconomicsInstituteoftheChineseAcademyofSocialSciencesandseniorCF40official.InZhangBin’sview,theGDPgrowthratedidnotdeclinemoreinthefirstquarter,becausethemainsupportfromtheincomemethodisthattheresidents’nominaldisposableincomehasnotyetgrownnegatively,andthisportionaccountsfor60%ofGDP.”Inthesecondquarter,theeconomywillcontinuetorecoverfromtheepidemicdisaster,buttheeconomicdamagecausedbytheepidemicisnotremedyablewithintheyear.Itisverydifficulttoreturntheeconomytoanormalstatethisyear.Itisverygoodiftheeconomicgrowthrateof2%-3%canbeachievedinitially.SaidZhangBin.Judgingfromtheperformanceofthe”troika”drivingtheChineseeconomy,inthefirstquarter,thenationalfixedassetinvestment(excludingfarmers)was841.4billionUSdollars,adecreaseof16.1%.Amongthem,infrastructureinvestmentfellby19.7%.”Maintainingthenexteconomicgrowthandmaintainingreasonableinvestmentgrowthisamust.Suchlargenegativegrowthininfrastructureinvestmentisfarbeyondnormal,anditisnecessarytoincreaseinvestment.”ZhangBinsuggested.Judgingfromtheperformanceofconsumption,inthefirstquarter,thetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodsreached785.8billionUSdollars,withadeclineof19.0%.Inthecaseofweakconsumption,shouldtheconsumercouponsbereleasedordirectlypaid?ZhangBinsaidthathecansendmoneydirectlyorsendcoupons.”Butwithoutinvestmentandincomegrowth,stablegrowthinconsumptionisdifficulttoguarantee.”Investmentorexportsareoftenlocomotives,andconsumptioniscars.Nowlet’slookatwhetherexportsareunreliable,andinvestmentremainsthefocusof(stabilizingeconomicgrowth).”ThespreadofoverseasepidemicshasputpressureonChineseexport-orientedenterprises.AccordingtodatafromtheNationalBureauofStatisticstoday,inthefirstquarter,exportsamountedto3.3363trillion,adecreaseof11.4%.However,inZhangBin’sview,thehighincidenceofforeignepidemicsandtheeconomicshutdownwillbegininMarch,andtheimpactonexportswillbecomemoreandmoreapparent,andthentheexportsituationisnotoptimistic.”Forexport-orientedenterprises,weneedsometemporarypolicysupport,includingsupportforcorporatecredit,taxreductions,andgraduallyreducetheoperatingcostsofenterprisestohelpthemsurvive.””ZhangBinsuggested.Thedoubleimpactoftheepidemicsituationathomeandabroad,economicpressure,andunemploymenthavecausedconcern.InMarch,thenationwideurbansurveyoftheunemployedpopulation5.9%,downby0fromFebruary.3averages.InZhangBin’sview,someunemploymentmaynotbefullyreflectedinthesurveyunemploymentratedata.”Currently,thepressureonthelabormarketismainlyfortheemploymentofmigrantworkers.Thesetwogroupsofnewlygraduatedcollegestudentsneedtoworkhardtosolvetheemploymentpressure.Amongthem,governmentconstructionprojectsstartedassoonaspossiblecandirectlyleadtoemployment,whilegovernmentprojectscanpromotetheresumptionofworkinmanydownstreamindustries.SaidZhangBin.Focus1:TheoverallperformanceoftheChineseeconomy”Theeconomywillcontinuetorecoverinthesecondquartertoachieve2-3%economicgrowthrateisverygood”SaunaYeWang:HowdoyouviewtheperformanceoftheChineseeconomyinthefirstquarter?ZhangBin:Thenewcrownepidemicisnotadisasterforhumanhealth,butalsoaneconomicdisaster.Theeconomywasforcedtoshutdownsubstantiallyandtheeconomyexperiencednegativegrowth.TheeconomicindicatorsinMarchweresignificantlybetterthanFebruary,indicatingthattheeconomyisemergingfromtheepidemic.China’sgrowthrateinthefirstquarterwas-6.8%,slightlybetterthanmypersonalexpectations.TheGDPhasnotdecreasedmore.Themainsupportfromtheincomemethodisthattheresidents’nominaldisposableincomehasnotyetgrownnegatively.Thispartaccountsfor60%ofGDP.Therelativelossesarecorporateprofitsandgovernmentperformance.Behindthenegativeeconomicgrowth,thepressuresofdifferentgroupsofpeopleareverydifferent.Thejoblossesaremainlyconcentratedinthemigrantworkersgroup,andthedifficultiesincontinuingtooperatearemainlyconcentratedinsmallandmicroenterprises.Theyneedtofocusonit.Theeconomywillcontinuetorecoverfromtheepidemicdisasterinthesecondquarter.Butthepressureisstillverybig,mainlyforthreereasons.First,thedownstreamdemandforglobaldemandcausedbytheglobalspreadofthenewcrownepidemicwillhaveanunprecedenteddistortionintheexportsector.Thesecondisthatthepreviouseconomicshutdownbroughttensoftrillionsofcashflowlossestoenterprises,residentsandlocalgovernments,whichwillaffectthesubsequentdemandandresumptionofwork.Thethirdisthatthenewcrownepidemicstillhaswidespreadpsychologyandpreventstheepidemicfromresurgence.Thevariouspreventionandcontrolmeasureswillaffectnormaleconomicactivitiestovaryingdegrees.Ifthebudgethasthenecessarypolicysupport,theweakeningofbothdomesticandexternaldemandwillpreventthesystemfromtakingover,andreplenishmentwillfurtherreduceincomeandpreventsystemicdemand.Theendofthedestructionofthemarketisfarfromthenormallevelofeconomicactivity.Thisyearisaveryspecialyear.ThenewcrownepidemichasbroughtgreatdisastertoChinaandtheglobaleconomy.Theseriousimpactofthenewcrownepidemicisnotonlyinthefirstquarterandthesecondquarter,norisitabletocompensatefortheeconomicdamagethisyear.Itisverydifficultfortheeconomytoreturntonormalstatethisyear.Itisverygoodiftheeconomicgrowthrateof2-3%canbeachievedinitially.Focus2:Theperformanceofthe”troika”inthefirstquarter”maintainingreasonableinvestmentgrowthisindispensableanditisnecessarytoincreasetheintensityofinfrastructureinvestment.”SaunaNightNet:Inthefirstquarter,nationalfixedassetinvestment(excludingfarmers)was841.4billionUSdollars,Ayear-on-yeardeclineof16.1%.Amongthem,infrastructureinvestmentfellby19.7%,manufacturinginvestmentfellby25.2%,realestatedevelopmentinvestmentfellby7.7%.Doesitneedpolicyforcetopromoteeconomicgrowththroughinvestment?ZhangBin:Fromtheperspectiveoftheexpendituremethod,investmentisthelargestandlargestpartofGDP.Fromtheperspectiveofexpenditure,themainsourceofnegativeGDPgrowthisnegativeinvestmentgrowth.Maintainingthenexteconomicgrowthandmaintainingreasonableinvestmentgrowtharecompulsoryoptions.Thecurrentmarketexpectationsarehighlyuncertain,andthepowerofspontaneousinvestmentinthemarketisveryweak.Itrequiresgovernmentinvestmenttodriveproductionandinvestmentinotherindustriesandtheoveralleconomicrecovery.Suchlargenegativegrowthininfrastructureinvestmentisfarbeyondnormal,anditisnecessarytoincreaseinvestment.Thekeytoensuringtheefficiencyofinfrastructureinvestmentisthatinvestmentprojectsfollowpeopleandindustries,andthereisstillmuchroomforinfrastructureinthemetropolitanarea.SaunaNightNet:Inthefirstquarter,thetotalretailsalesofsocialconsumergoodswas785.8billion,andthenfellby19.0%.DirectorLiuShijinbelievesthatthekeytosteadygrowthistostabilizeconsumption.Recently,theeconomicscommunityhasheatedlydebatedwhethertoaccumulateconsumptionvouchersordirectlysendmoneytostimulateconsumption.Whatdoyouthink?ZhangBin:Icansendmoneydirectly,orIcansendoutcoupons.Nowadays,alargenumberoflow-incomepeoplehavelostjobopportunitiesorarenotfullyemployed,andtheirincomeisgreatlyaffectedandtheyneedtoberescued.Temporarybailoutsystemarrangementsandpolicydesignforpeopleinneedareanimportantpartofbuildingawell-offsociety,sofurtherstudyandimprovementareneededinthisregard.Theepidemiccrisisprovidesvaluablelearningandtrainingopportunities.Somepreliminaryexperienceisworthexploringandlearning.Directlyissuingmoneyandissuingcouponscanachievethepurposeofincreasingconsumption,butitisnotenoughforthesteadygrowthofconsumptioninthewholesociety.Thesteadygrowthofconsumptioninthewholesocietyrequiresthestableandnormaloperationofthewholesocietyandeconomy.Withoutinvestmentandincomegrowth,stablegrowthinconsumptioncannotbeguaranteed.Fromtheexperienceofgoingoutoftheeconomicdownturn,investmentorexportsareoftenlocomotives,andconsumptioniscars.Nowlet’sseewhetherexportsareunreliable,andinvestmentisstillthefocus.SaunaNightNet:Inthefirstquarter,exportsreached3.3363trillion,adecreaseof11.4%;importswere3.238trillionyuan,downby0.7%.Thebalanceofimportsandexportswas98.3billionyuanintradesurplus.Whatdoyouthinkabouttheperformanceofexportsinthefirstquarter?Forexport-orientedexportenterprises,doyouneedtoprovidemoreassistancetothepolicy?ZhangBin:Exportmainlydependsonexternaldemand.TheInternationalMonetaryFundpredictsthatthisyear’sworldeconomywillbethelargesteconomicdownturnsincetheGreatDepressionofthelastcentury,andthedownturnwillexceedthe2008globalfinancialcrisis.Thisisalsoanunprecedentedtestfortheexportsector.Thedeclineinexportsinthefirstquarterwascausedbythedomesticeconomicshutdownandalsobythedeclineinexternaldemand.Theexportsituationisnotoptimistic.ThehighincidenceofforeignepidemicsandtheeconomicshutdownbeganinMarch,andtheimpactonexportscontinuedtograduallyemerge.Export-orientedenterprisesneedtopayattentiontovariousaspects,andneedsometemporarypolicysupport,includingsupportforcorporatecredit,taxreductions,andgraduallyreducetheoperatingcostsofenterprisestohelpenterprisessurvive.Focus3:UnemploymentIssuesSolveEmploymentPressureGovernmentconstructionprojectsstartassoonaspossibletoimprovetheemploymentofpublicmanagementservicesSaunaNightNet:Inthefirstquarter,therewere229newurbanemployeesacrossthecountry.InMarch,thenationwideurbansurveyoftheunemployedpopulation5.9%,downby0fromFebruary.3averages.Theunemploymentproblemisnotonlyaneconomicproblem,butalsorelatedtosocialstability.Whatisyoursuggestionforsolvingthisproblem?ZhangBin:Theeconomicoperationdeviatesfromnormal,andtheunemploymentpressurewillbegreatnext.Someunemploymentmaynotbefullyreflectedinthesurveyedunemploymentratedata,therearealargenumberofincompleteemployment,andsometemporaryemploymentisdifficulttounderstandstatistics.Thelabormarketpressureismainlycausedbytwogroups.Oneistheemploymentofmigrantworkers,whichismainlyreflectedinthepressureonthelabormarketstock;thesecondisthenewlygraduatedcollegestudents,whichismainlyreflectedinthepressureontheincrementalfoodmarket.Unemploymentofexportenterpriseswillalsobeabigchallenge.Solvingemploymentpressurerequiresmanyefforts.First,thegovernmentconstructionprojectstartedassoonaspossible.Theaimistodirectlypromoteemploymentandreplacetheprojectsstartedbythegovernmenttopromotetheresumptionofworkinmanydownstreamindustries.Second,relaxtheserviceindustryaccessstandards,andsomenewlyestablishedenterprisesenjoy1-2yearsofprogressiveandhouserentalpolicypreferences.Inthefuture,themaincontentofconsumptionupgradingintheresidentialsectorwillbeeducation,health,sportsandentertainment,andotherhumancapital-intensiveservices.Thekeysupportforindustrialupgradingisscientificresearch,education,businessservices,andhumancapital-intensiveservices.Theproportionofdevelopmentstagessimilartothatofhigh-incomecountriesishigherthanthatofemploymentinthehumancapital-intensiveserviceindustrymentionedabove,andtheproportionoftotalemploymentissignificantlylower,whichisashortcomingthatneedstobesupplementedbyeconomicandsocialdevelopment.Thenewcrownepidemichasbroughtpressureandalsobroughtopportunitiesforreform.Ithaseffectivelyloweredtheaccessstandardsoftheseindustriesandgrantedcertainpolicypreferences.Atthesametime,ithasopenedadoorfortheemploymentofnewgraduatesinthefutureandisalsoafutureconsumptionexpansionAndupgradeprotection.Third,improvetheemploymentofpublicmanagementservices.China’spopulationmobilitydoesnotmatchpublicmanagementservices.Inareaswithlargepopulationinflows,publicmanagementpersonnelandservicescannotkeepupwithdevelopmentneedsduetoestablishmentrestrictions.Itisnecessarytocombinetheexistingstatisticalsurveysandbigdataanalysistosolidlygraspthenumberofpermanentresidents,agestructureofpopulation,andpopulationmobilitylawsineachregion,soastoarrangeforpublicmanagementservicepersonnelbasedonmatching.Thenewlyaddedpublicmanagementservicepersonnelcannotsetlocalhouseholdregistrationrestrictionsandeducationrestrictions,andshouldhaveadistributionratioreservedformigrantworkers.Sauna,YeWangHouRunfangEditorChenLiproofreadingWangXin

銆 愮 叜 杩 囩 囩 廫 Chong 抑 姑姑 姑姑 內 銆 濆 悧 銆 慱 鍗 卞 _ 鍧 忓  The whole world is very smooth, and it’s the best one. Ning Brothers are all swaying. They are ringing. They are sorrowful. They are sorrowful. They are sorrowful and sorrowful. They are … Read more[Can the water of boiled corn be drunk？]

銆 愮 緤 夊 夲 嵠 ョ 丛 攏 悅 怅 逅 撃 悧 銆 慱 攏 抅 捗 淿 撿 曝 庝 箞 锅 歘 傘 傘 傘 傘 傡 傘 傏 傡 傘 悍 傏 悍 傍 悍 傍 悍 悍 傍 悍 操 掍 傍 悍 悍 悍 備 悍 悍 悍 … Read more[Can mutton boil white radish]_White radish_How to do_How to do

銆愯姽鑿滄€庝箞鍚冩渶鍑忚偉銆慱鑺硅彍_鐦﹁韩_楗_绂佸繉 Silicone, pickaxe, and pickle, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow, sorrow埌娑堣偪鍒╁翱鐨勬晥鏋滐紝鑰屼笖杩樺彲浠ュ府鍔╂垜浠檷浣庤鍘嬶紝灏ゅ叾鏄湪鍝轰钩鏈熺殑鏃跺€欎娇鐢ㄤ篃鏄瘮杈冩湁鍒╃殑銆?1銆佷紬鎵€鍛ㄧ煡鐨勬槸鑺硅彍瀵逛簬鎴戜滑鐨勬湁寰堥珮鐨勮惀鍏讳环鍊笺€傞潚鑿滈噷闈㈠惈鏈夐潪甯镐赴Sorry, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it.惀鍏讳环鍊兼槸寰堥珮鐨勩€傝姽鑿滈噷闈㈣繕鍚湁涓€浜涜姵棣欐补锛岃繖浜涙补鏈変粈涔堜綔鐢ㄥ悧?棣栧厛灏辨槸鍙互澧炲姞鎴戜滑鐨勯娆诧紝鐗瑰埆鏄澶╃殑鏃跺€欙紝寰堝浜虹殑鑳冨彛閮戒笉鏄緢濂姐€傚叾娆★紝鑺硅彍杩樺彲浠ュ府鍔╂垜浠秷鑲匡紝鍒╁翱銆傝繖浜涢兘鏄湪鍑忚偉鏂归潰璧风殑浣滅敤姣旇緝澶с€傛渶鍚庡憿灏辨槸鍙互甯姪鎴戜滑闄嶄綆琛€鍘嬨€傜壒鍒槸鍦ㄥ摵涔虫湡闂寸殑濂虫€у悆鏄  湁 蓁 鍋 ぇ 镄 勫 ソ 钖 Power 抑 銆?2 … Read more[How to eat celery to lose weight]_celery_slimming_diet_taboo

銆愯挏鑻旀堡鎬庝箞鍋氬ソ鍚冦€慱姝ｇ‘鍋氭硶_濡備綍鍋? 鎯冲繀澶у鍦ㄥ悆钂滆嫈鐨勬椂鍊欓兘搴旇鐗㈢墷璁颁綇浜嗚挏鑻旂殑鍒烘縺鍛抽亾锛岃€屽拷瑙嗘帀浜嗚挏钖硅嚜韬殑钀ュ吇浠峰€硷紝鍏跺疄钂滆嫈涓瘜鍚潪甯镐赴瀵岀殑绾ょ淮绱狅紝澶氬悆钂滆柟鏈夊姪浜庣紦瑙ｄ究绉樼幇璞°€傚埗浣滆挏鑻旂殑杩囩▼涓紝涓嶅悓鍙ｅ懗鐨勪汉閫夋嫨鐨勫埗浣滄柟娉曚篃鏄笉涓€鏍风殑銆傚叾涓挏鑻旀堡鍒欐槸鍙ｅ懗娓呮贰鍦板尯锛屼汉浠細閫夋嫨涓€绉嶏紝浠婂ぉ灏变竴璧锋潵瀛︿範钂滆嫈姹ょ殑鍒朵綔鎶€宸с€傜敤鏂?Do you know how to draw?300g钂滆嫈 120g閾惰€?20g 泦 ¤ 泲 2 trickle?璋 冩 枡 椋 熺 洂 阃 傞 噺 KEY 娹 娊 阃 傞 噺 璋 冨 晰 娌?嘃 傞 噺 瑗 Cross-child crotch and crotch fortifications?. Aren’t you going to cross the children?  鐢?. 钂滆柟涔熸礂鍑€鍒囧ソ3. 閾惰€虫场鍙?。 5 up to 5. 嗖 … Read more[How to cook garlic soup]_The correct way_How to make

Ziguang (000938) in-depth research series: 5G, internationalization and efforts to expand the new situation, self-developed chips to lay a long-term foundation 1. 5G business, industry transformation, business ushers in new development opportunities.The government’s 5G license was officially issued in June 2019, and global 5G commerce is rapidly advancing.4G changes life and 5G changes society. We … Read moreZiguang (000938) in-depth research series： 5G, internationalization and efforts to expand the new situation, self-developed chips to lay a long-term foundation

Changshu Bank (601128) performance evaluation: small and micro businesses continue to make efforts to accelerate the pace out of Changshu Investment Highlights Changshu Bank continued to work intensively on small and micro businesses, with higher interest margins and thicker provisions. The main driver of profit growth in 18 years came from the increase in the … Read moreChangshu Bank (601128) performance evaluation： small and micro businesses continue to make efforts to accelerate the pace out of Changshu

East China Pharmaceutical (000963) semi-annual report comment: 2019H1 performance basically in line with expectations Key points of investment: The company announced the semi-annual report for 2019 and realized revenue of 182. 4.9 billion, an annual increase of 19. 08%; net profit attributable to mother 15. 9.6 billion, an annual increase of 23. 42%; net profit … Read moreEast China Pharmaceutical (000963) semi-annual report comment： 2019H1 performance basically in line with expectations

Yunnan Baiyao (000538): Pre-received income affects the growth rate distribution of the pharmaceutical and health divisions in the first quarter Event: Yunnan Baiyao released the 2019 quarterly report. Steady growth in performance. Yunnan Baiyao’s quarterly revenue increased by 10% annually, net profit increased by 5%, and non-net profit increased by 8%. 5%, EPS 0. 81 … Read moreYunnan Baiyao (000538)： Pre-received income affects the growth rate distribution of the pharmaceutical and health divisions in the first quarter

Tiankang Biological (002100) 2019 performance preview comment-high profit growth Under the non-plague situation, it is expected that the dividends of this cycle will exceed those of the past, and the ultra-long pig cycle will fully verify the comprehensive ability of the enterprise. The company has obvious geographical advantages, low cost, and strong determinism. It is … Read moreTiankang Biological (002100) 2019 performance preview comment-high profit growth